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VMI Year 3 Progress Report

The 2010-2011 VMI Annual Progress Report was submitted to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation on May 31. The milestones update reported that of the 67 milestones, 33 have been completed and substantial progress has been made and work is ongoing for the other 34. In Year 3, more than 61 papers have been submitted or published, are in preparation, in review or in press (see publications). Below are a few highlights of the progress over the past year.
  • A detailed agent-based model (ABM) for epidemic and vaccine supply chains for Niger was developed and refined patch models to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of population movement underlying measles dynamics in Niger.
  • Malaria work reported in Year 2 on a single location transmission model has been published and additional extensions of this model undertaken.
  • Malaria Tools, an interface for our combined interventions model, was released August 2010 and further development continues.
  • Malaria work also involves developing technical guidance for the Elimination Scenario Planning Tool.
  • We continue to optimize the use of dengue disease data and models to address disease control strategies.
  • We have completed the development of a generic dynamic supply chain model and model representations of country-specific vaccine supply chain systems for a single vaccine in Niger and Thailand.
  • We have solidified our partnership with PATH Optimize and recently conducted a Vietnam in-country training workshop on our supply chain modeling tool.  A vaccine supply chain model for Vietnam is under development.
  • Our modeling study on best use of passively-cooled cold boxes has been submitted for publication.
  • Use of our equation based model (EBM) to determine effects of introducing changes to the vaccine supply chain network in Niger has been published.
  • Our discrete event simulation program/tool to simulate structure and operation of a vaccine supply chain has been applied to assist public health decision makers in Niger.
  • Our work toward a central public health data repository continues with completion of digitization and integration of 122 years of weekly US surveillance data with release for beta testing planned in June 2011.
  • Collaboration continues with Thailand in vaccine supply chain data collection.
  • A modeling framework was developed to explore when countries should introduce rubella vaccine and/or elimination efforts.
  • Influenza focus has been on submission of our previous work for publication, including the analysis of the Chinese H1N1 pandemic reported last year.
  • The VMI continues to provide technical assistance to the Global Influenza Program at the WHO and coordinate H1N1pdm analyses and publications.
  • Polio activities have focused on Nigeria and the analysis of polio surveillance data to identify the effectiveness of newly licensed oral poliovirus vaccines.

Congratulations to all of the VMI investigators and collaborators for a productive Year 3.

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